Up in the Air

Gore Takes a Cue from Wayne Gretzky

While I've never really been that interested in sport and the finer points of hockey always eluded me, I always remember the confession of Canada's most succesful players, Wayne Gretzky,  who said, "I pass the puck not to where they are but where they are going to be."

Gore quoted Gretzky in an impassioned speech delivered in Bali a few hours ago talking about the need not just to anticipate (which is what I think the hockey player had in mind) but also to hold space for a player who clearly wasn't yet playing the same game. He urged the participants in the climate change conference not to wait on the US to create an agreement but to "move forward keeping a large blank space in your mandate, saying our mandate is incomplete but we're moving forward in the hope that it will be filled in by the time we have a treaty in Copenhagen at the end of 2009". Gore also said that the US was not the only country that could move forward and that directing anger at the US delegation could result in the entire world losing momentum.

I read into his comment  a request for charity (such an old fashioned word nowadays) as well as anticipation and urgency - wise counsel that reflects the growing awareness of people everywhere that spaceship earth does not have lifeboats; we're all in this together;  and that, unless we see ourselves as  one global family, able to both coach the reluctant as well as calm the reckless we make matters infinitely worse.

Here is a link to the most recent summary of Gore's Bali speech.

For more inspiration - below is a video of Gore's acceptance speech in Oslo on December 10th.

When I think of all that lonely travelling through all those soulless airports and mindless, inconsistent airport security checks that he had to do with a bunch of slides before enough of us "got it" , I feel deeply indebted.......

 

Take a Stand, Exercise your Political Will

Anna Pollock

I am writing this several thousands of miles away from Canada. Sadly I am not in Bali but in Europe, from which vantage point it is less and less possible to ignore the way in which Canada's reputation for fairness, forward thinking and international diplomacy is being trashed so visibly by a Premier who can think only of his own self interest. The issue is no longer about left and right politics and shaming others; it is simply about taking the right action now. The western world has grown prosperous and mean spirited on the back of cheap oil and cheap credit. Both may be diminishing in supply and that will bring its own set of challenges and conflicts.

Right now, however, as Canadian citizens, we have a chance in Bali to do the right thing; to create a multilateral, multi-national agreement and, thereby, show that each of recognizes that nature knows no political boundaries. We're all in this together, rich and poor...., urban or rural, environmentalist or capitalist.

But our democratic rights are curtailed. Unless we petition our leaders between elections, they appear to be able to do what they wish or think they can get away with. many are cut off from voter sentiment by advisors, pundits, spin merchants. There's a small window available. Avaaz - a social network of concerned citizens invites Canadians to expres their concerns by signing a petition.

I reproduce their e-mail in full below. Click on Avaaz above or the first link in their email below to get to the petition form quickly.

Dear friends,

Right now, a major UN summit in Bali has just a few days left to hammer out an agreement on stopping catastrophic climate change. But instead of helping out, Canada is actually sabotaging the UN talks! On Saturday, experts gave us the global "fossil" award for being the worst country in the world on climate change.

There's still a few days left to save Canada's reputation -- and the climate -- but we need a massive democratic roar to remind our Prime Minister what Canada is all about, and stop him from blocking the world at Bali. Click below to sign the petition and we'll advertize the number of signatures we get in an ad campaign across Canada this week. Our goal is to get 25,000 people to sign in just 3 days before the ads run. Click below, then forward this email to all your friends and family right away:

http://www.avaaz.org/en/another_canadian_climate_crime/4.php

Enough is enough. Prime Minister Harper's short-sighted, undemocratic and big oil-driven policy on climate change is damaging the world and destroying our image as a good country. We're supposed to be the nice guys, who try to do the right thing in the world.

The vast majority of Canadians are hopping mad on this issue -- we can win this. We just need to show Harper how serious we are that he change course. Sign up now and forward this email to everyone you know - we've got just 3 days to hit 25,000 signatures!

With much respect and hope,

Ricken Patel,
Avaaz.org

PS - Here are links to some more info on this:

David Suzuki (the Nature of Things) calls the government's spin on climate change "humiliating" and "ludicrous"
http://www.thestar.com/News/article/283829

The former editor-in-chief of CBC news discusses the damage done by Canada's climate policy to our international reputation:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/viewpoint/vp_burman/2007/12/canada_flounders_on_issue_of_c.html

The Fossil of the Day Award site:
http://www.avaaz.org/fossils

Headlines and Skylines From Davos - Anna Pollock

It’s Official. Over 400 delegates from 110 countries were delivered an uncompromising message at the Second International Conference on Climate Change organized by the UNWTO, UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).  For recent coverage, see Swiss Info and check the UNWTO climate change pages here.

We met under clear autumnal skies in the pristine mountain resort of Davos, the brilliant sunshine bouncing off the sparkling granite mountains and burbling rivers transporting melted glaciers to the ocean -- an idyllic setting with only the multiple contrails of jet aircraft on their flight path from Milan overhead to provide sensory evidence of the impending crisis. 

So what was the official line, what was communicated most clearly?

· Climate Change is Unequivocal (WMO & UNEP)

· Climate Change is no longer an environmental issue but a developmental issue (UNEP)

· Tourism is both a victim and a vector of climate change (UNWTO)

· If global average temperatures reach 2 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial levels, the impact on global tourism will be devastating – the author of the IPCC report on Ecosystem Impacts, Dr. Fischlein, came from Zurich to deliver this news to the conference in person. (IPCC)

· Even if all emissions generated by human activity ceased today, the global average temperature will rise by 1.4 degrees C in a matter of decades, so the 2 degree threshold/tipping point is not that far off.

· Tourism pumps 1.3 million megatons of CO2 into the atmosphere annually – just 5% of the global total. (UNWTO report commissioned of a panel of scientific exports as a major contribution to the conference)

· Tourism is, apprently,  in danger of being demonized by the western press (notably in Europe) and prevented from fulfilling its vital role of poverty alleviation and wealth transfer.  

· Less developed nations will be doubly hit if demand declines and climate changes continue to increase adaptation costs.

· Tourism should play a leadership role by encouraging the global community to develop and implement both mitigation and adaptation strategies now and ensure the tourism community is involved and its unique contribution taken into account.

Now this marks a huge step in bringing the climate change agenda forward and the organizers are to be highly commended. Justifiably described as a remarkable exercise in institutional collaboration, personnel from UNWTO, UNEP, WMO and WEF had clearly worked very hard to ensure we didn’t lack for information. The agenda was packed with over 30 presentations delivered between 3:0 PM on Monday Oct 1 to 12:0 noon on Wednesday. Some might say too  packed as there was limited room for serious debate. But the mission of this event was clear from the start – we were there to observe and contribute to a second set of words on the subject: the UNWTO’s Second Declaration on Climate Change and Tourism and that mission was accomplished pretty well.

The draft Declaration document was a brilliant piece of “word smithing” and diplomatic craftsmanship and serves its purpose – it declares tourism’s concern, identifies the actions required of its stakeholders and can be used by policy makers and advocates to direct attention. But sadly, it is not enough to prevent the earth’s thermostat from continuing to move upwards. To achieve that, we need more discipline, clarity and downright honesty. For example:

· Implied, but never discussed with rigor, was the notion that tourism’s contribution to wealth distribution and poverty alleviation should justify special treatment for tourism compared to other sectors. It was as if tourism had recently discovered religion – a moral reason for existence when, for so many years, the message was consistently financial and employment. We must be careful how this message is conveyed as “our” sincerity and track record will be subject to laser like scrutiny by the same press that “demonize” tourism for its carbon footprint. Supposing other sectors like agriculture and power generation used the same argument – that they should be let off the hook because they produce the food we eat or the energy used to heat and or cool our dwellings?

· There was no response to the IPCC recommendation that the 2 degree C warming increase could possibly be avoided only if emissions peak between 2010 and 2015 and only if global emissions are then reduced to between 25 and 50% by 2050. Is tourism willing to lose 2100 megatons of excess carbon weight each year by 2050? If so how?

· There was no emphasis given to the impact that climate change will have on the global economy - either for the worse or better. There was no mention of the Stern report and discussion of the distinct possibility that WTO's optimistic forecasts might need to be revised downwards if global demand does more that simply adjust geographically and seasonally. 

· There was no opportunity for delegates to exchange invaluable information and experience regarding actions that have worked in their jurisdictions in terms of reducing carbon emissions. That will have to happen now and in another post I’ll suggest ways in which we could do that.

Don’t get me wrong – it was a start of an arduous journey and, again, the organizers should be commended highly for their efforts. It’s now up to each of us engaged in the tourism industry to move out of denial, anger, fear or even bargaining into concentrated focus on mitigation and adaptation action.

25 years have passed since Rio. We were warned then but did little but grow. Business as usual prevailed. We no longer have time on our side.

The Icarus Foundation will endeavour in the next few days and weeks to address and discuss the topics that formed the agenda at Davos. The UNWTO has promised to make all the presentations to the public who didn't wish to burn more carbon getting there but can use the invaluable material to help this industry play its part in addressing the biggest issue of the century.

Travel: The New Tobacco

Travel: The new Tobacco?  - this is the title of an article in the UK Guardian newspaper and picked up other papers in Europe this weekend. The article cites Mark Ellingham, the youthful founder of Rough Guides who has made a living encouraging people to explore the Planet. It seems as if he has had a change of heart, commenting that

"It is hard to say the positive impact travelling has can ever outweigh the damage done by simply travelling to the destination."

Mr Ellingham wants a £100 green tax on all flights to Europe and Africa, and £250 on flights to the rest of the world. He also urges investment for a low-carbon economy and a moratorium on airport expansion.

He said: "The tobacco industry fouled up the world while denying it as much as possible for as long as they could. If the travel industry rosily goes ahead as it is doing... we are putting ourselves in a very similar position to the tobacco industry."

For those of living in North America, where environmental concerns are not as strongly felt as in Europe, this might seem "over the top". I have just attended a weekend course with a wide cross section of people (five nationalities, mostly European). Naturally, I was happy to invite my colleagues to come and explore Canada and visit me. You'd be surprisesd at the number of people who said "thanks but no thanks". Their reluctance to accept this exciting invitation had nothing to do with my cooking - they simply felt it would be imoral to fly long-haul give the carbon cost of the flight.....My experience in the UK last week echoes concerns relayed in an earlier blog post - see here.

Food for thought.... and again, I'm not referring to my cooking..... Change can occur in a twinking of an eye......To be forewarned is to be prepared?????  How well do we know our customers? And if this is thr fringe, when will the mainstream follow?   Anna

US Generals Highlight Climate Change as a Security Issue

This post might have been titled: “How Many Five Star Generals Does it Take to Turn off the Light?” or “American Declares War on Climate Change”.

Perhaps when America’s military might turns its attention to the issue of climate change, we can expect its federal policy makers to sit up and listen attentively.

A report issued yesterday by the Alexandria, Va.-based, national security think-tank The CNA Corporation was written by six retired admirals and five retired generals. It warned that  in the next 30 to 40 years there will be wars over water, increased hunger instability from worsening disease and rising sea levels and global warming-induced refugees. It further predicted that "The chaos that results can be an incubator of civil strife, genocide and the growth of terrorism.  

The Generals, used to thinking strategically, highlight the interdependencies that multiply impacts of the increase in global temperatures. Here’s a section from the Executive Summary:

“Unlike most conventional security threats that involved a single entity acting in specific ways and points in time, climate change has the potential to result in multiple chronic conditions, occurring globally within the same time frame. Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes increasingly scarce, and large populations move in search of resources. Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies”.

Some critics have suggested that the generals have exaggerrated the importance of such threats in the short run and that it will take more than 30 years for such interdependencies to manifest. But given that tourism is so dependent on the free movement of people and absence of political unrest, let alone terrorism, it's a thought provoking and sobering read and should be mandatory reading for demand forecasters and scenario planners, You can download it here. http://cna.org/

Will Climate Concerns Affect Tourism Demand?

The big unknown for the tourism industry is the impact of climate change on consumer behavior. Will individual leisure consumers voluntarily reduce discretionary travel in order to reduce or minimize their “carbon footprint”? Will tourists make destination or product choices based on the environmental record of places and suppliers?  The jury is out. The sea change in public opinion regarding climate change specifically is a relative recent one and there is no way of knowing whether it will last or whether it will translate into behavioral change.

In Europe, in particular, there has been considerable focus placed on the travel industry. Influential writers such as George Monbiot in the Guardian have called for people to stop flying altogether and even  the Bishop of London has suggested that long-haul travel is a sin. Blogs such as Plane Stupid, formed to slow down the aggressive expansion plans of all UK’s airports, have harnessed concerns over climate change to argue strenuously for a slow down in aviation. Hysterical though some of the opinions may be, they have garnered considerable media attention and, as our post on the IPPR illustrates, public questioning of the role that aviation and tourism play are on the increase. As this Vanity Fair article shows,  the Prince of Charles, once written off as either too eccentric or too aloof to be taken seriously as an influencer of public behavior, is now being recognized as having vision and some relevance.

In the United States, a new Yale research survey reveals a significant shift in public attitudes toward the environment and global warming. Fully 83 percent of Americans now say global warming is a “serious” problem, up from 70 percent in 2004. More Americans than ever say they have serious concerns about environmental threats, such as toxic soil and water (92 percent, up from 85 percent in 2004), deforestation (89 percent, up from 78 percent), air pollution (93 percent, up from 87 percent) and the extinction of wildlife (83 percent, up from 72 percent in 2005).

Most dramatically, the survey of 1,000 adults nationwide shows that 63 percent of Americans agree that the United States “is in as much danger from environmental hazards, such as air pollution and global warming, as it is from terrorists.” It reveals growing concern about dependence on Middle Eastern oil, with 96 percent of the public saying this is a serious problem. As a result, the public overwhelmingly supports increasing the use of alternative energy, including solar and wind power, as well as investing more in energy efficiency.

The survey indicates that while 70 percent of Americans believe that President Bush doesn’t do enough for the environment and should do more, many citizens are ready to act on their own. Seventy-five percent recognize that their own behavior can help to reduce global warming, and 81 percent believe it is their responsibility to do so.

The results further suggest that many Americans want greener products and are ready to spend money to try new technologies that will help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Seventy percent of the public indicates a willingness to buy solar panels, and 67 percent would consider buying a hybrid car.

But again, it is unclear how this shift in attitudes is affecting destination and vacation choice.

Canada faces both a threat and an opportunity. As one of the larger carbon producers, we can hardly claim to be a green country. But with imagnation and will, the tourism industry could move towards becoming carbon neutral and, thereby appeal to the growing number of "high yield" travelers who are preferring to buy green and who are making consumer choices based on the responsible practices of suppliers.

Yes, it is all up in the air at the moment!  Do we make a stand or do we move out front. Do we carry on with "business as usual" as has been our practice or do we dare to be different? Does the current generation of leaders hand over an industry in relative decline (Canada's market share and position in international rankings has been falling consistently over te past few years) or does it work with the next generation of leaders to create a bold, new, contenporary vision?

These are the questioins and the issues. "Up In The Air" will be your source of news and views on this subject - we welcome your comments as the story unfolds....

The Ski Industry Has Most to Lose

Author: Joe Kelly
The ski industry is arguably one of the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of global warming. Consider, for example, Kitzbuhel, the Austrian ski resort that hosts the famous Hahenkamm downhill race, one of the most famous and most treacherous ski races on the world cup circuit and is now dying a slow death. Within two decades, there simply won’t be enough snow to support skiing on the legendary slopes. That’s the finding of a recent report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the first study to assess the economic impact of global warming on European leisure.

Kitzbuhel is by no means alone. In the Alps, for instance, ski resorts below 1,050 metres – such as the famous Kitzbuhel – will no longer be viable within 20 years. Glaciers will all but disappear within 45 years and all but the highest ski resorts will close. Global warming will impact ski areas on this side of the Atlantic as well, with lower altitude resorts experiencing a fate similar to their Alpine counterparts.

Both the Swiss government and the Swiss tourist industry are acutely aware of the problem - the Swiss Info site is a rich resource of information about the problem and the solutions that the ingenious Swiss are developing to tackle such a huge change in their operations, way of life and incomes.

According to Swiss Info, nine destinations in the Bernese Alps commissioned a study by Bern University., "Climate change and tourism – an analysis of scenarios for the Bernese Oberland up to the year 2030" that points out that the effects are manifold and complex.

They cannot, it says, be reduced to a simple formula equating rising temperatures with the disappearance of snow and therefore the death of skiing.However, winter revenues will drop by around 30 per cent, and more than one-third of the region's ski areas could cease to exist. Summer tourism, on the other hand, could increase.   

But ironically, as the number of viable ski destinations diminishes, skiers and snowboarders will be forced to travel further to seek out slopes with adequate snow coverage. Like a snake eating its own tail, the emissions generated by the increased travel will contribute further to global climate change, sending the ski industry into a deeper downward spiral.   

Another report, prepared in the UK by Halifax Insurance has suggested that ski holidays will soon become expenseive luxuries. The report's author, Bill McGuire, the professor of geohazards and director of the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, said Alpine temperatures had increased by 2C since the 1970s. Further warming could cause the area's resorts to experience a 30% reduction in snow cover by 2020, rising to a 50% decline by the 2050s,

Realizing this predicament, some ski resorts including Whister in Canada,  have begun to take significant steps to reduce their so-called "carbon footprint." Site of alpine events for the 2010 Olympics, this mountain resort has made a strong commitment to reducing its footprint with a range of environmentally friendly strategies. These include:     

• compact and mixed development patterns to minimize travel distances and encourage walking and cycling;
• transportation initiatives to reduce private automobile use, such as improved public transit services and networks for bicycles and pedestrians;
• design practices to increase energy efficiencies of new and retrofit building developments;
• low-emission and renewable energy supply systems, such as local micro-hydro and geo-thermal energy generation projects; and
• carbon offsetting programs and other strategies that address the greenhouse gas emissions associated with visitor travel to and from the resort.

While these initiatives are ambitious, they are only a drop in the bucket in terms of minimizing the effects of global warming. For the most part, the viability of ski areas will depend on the actions of others – households, firms and governments – to combat global warming. Without concerted efforts at all levels, the ski industry is doomed to go the way of the Dodo or, to use a more fitting metaphor, the way of Kitzbuhel.